My High Level Macro Predictions for 2023.

My High Level Macro Predictions for 2023.

I don’t know why but I think 2023 is going to be a pretty weird but wild year for me personally.

 

BUT.

 

I reckon this year is going to be very interesting in a lot other areas and ways. I feel like all of these things below are NOT being talked about as much as they should.

 

Even though we are towards the end of January, I still wanted to write and publish this so I can stop thinking about it.

 

Important thing to note is, most predictions end up being very wrong and I am not as smart as you think I am, or more importantly as I think I am.

1. Natural Gas

As someone really interested in markets and Global Macro it’s really hard not to talk about Nat-Gas.

 

I think Nat-gas will drive a lot of macro commodity news in 2023.

2. Paying Attention to Turkey

I don’t know how exactly to frame this but I am really bullish when it comes to Turkey as a whole. 2023 is going to be a big year for the country with the all-important elections and economic improvement.

A contrarian take so let’s see how things turn out.

3. Apple Goes Big on Fintech

Rumors have been circulating for a while now that Apple is all set to launch something big and new, something other than consumer electronics.

 

I remember a couple years ago there was a lot talk about Apple launching a car or even buying McLaren.

 

I do NOT think Apple will go down the car route though. If it’s going to be something then it must be FINTECH!

 

Let me bring some perspective to this prediction. Smartphone sales are going to take a hit because of economic conditions.

 

Apple basically has all the software and hardware infrastructure to pull off a major move in the Fintech industry.

  • All types of devices from wearables, smartphones, laptops/iMacs, and tablets.
  • Developer ecosystem in the form of IOS
  • Payments ecosystem with Apple Pay
  • App store control

 

Apple has already tested the waters with the Apple Card launched a couple years ago.

 

This is why I think Apple will go all in on Fintech this year.

4. Real Inflation drop will be a slow gradual burn (not drop off a cliff)

Real inflation will go down in a gradual way rather than a complete drop off a clip scenario that many are claiming.

Inflation is a very sticky; especially “Cost-Push Inflation”-what most economies are facing right now.

 

No matter what a particular government does, the spiral is already set in motion, from manufacturers, suppliers, retailers everyone has already raised their prices according to the cost of production increase they were facing.

This is why you will not notice a real, significant drop in inflation anytime soon.

5. PetroYuan will be the start of dollar demise but it will still be gradual

 

Many people have romanticized this idea of the dollar losing its "Reserve Currency Status". A lot sensationalist headlines have been written and I have seen some beautifully designed YouTube thumbnails on videos talking about this.

 

My hot take is that this will NOT happen any time soon, especially without the PetroYuan.

 

As I write this, everyone, everywhere, is fighting against rising inflation and cost of living. The strong Dollar is basically killing every country on the right side of the world map.

Strong Dollar killing every Country on the right side of the map.

 

Without going into details, I have a slight feeling that the US has pretty much weaponized the Dollar.  

 

Having said all that, right now, the dollar is a great hedge against inflation in many parts of the world.

 

If however, the Chinese and the Saudis come to an agreement and we see the PetroYuan come to light, it will only be the start of the “Dollar Demise”. It will be a slow and gradual shift rather than a sudden change.

 

I just don’t see a situation where a single and sudden event causes the dollar to lose reserve currency status all over the world.

 

For now though, people are just over-hyping this.

6. Microsoft + OpenAI?

 

Who remembers Microsoft? The poor $1.8 Trillion company didn’t even make it in the FANG abbreviation. Just like the city it’s headquartered in (Seattle, WA), people in the tech industry often seem to forget it exists.

 

I think Microsoft is set to make a huge comeback in the tech world. That’s it. That’s the prediction. How, you ask? I don’t know. Could be AI, could be something else.

7. Vietnam Becomes Big Production Hub

A quick, short prediction.

Vietnam is one the hottest markets in Asia right now.

Apple recently moved some of their production there so I think more firms will follow.

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